JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — This year's hurricane season is off to a late start.
In 2014, the first storm formed on July 1, with all years since then having the first storm form on or before June 4. However, 2024 has broken this pattern, experiencing the latest first named storm in a decade, with no storms as of mid-June.
Since 2014, the Atlantic hurricane season has consistently seen its first named tropical storm before July. This early start has been driven by some of the warmest years globally on record over the past decade, which have increased sea surface temperatures and allowed storms to form earlier and become stronger.
While warm sea surface temperatures are crucial for storm formation, they are not the only factor. Tropical cyclones also require:
- Low Vertical Wind Shear: High wind shear can disrupt storm formation.
- Ample Moisture: Sufficient atmospheric moisture is necessary for the development of storms.
- Tropical Waves: These are disturbances that can develop into tropical storms.
At the start of the 2024 season, these conditions have been lacking, leading to the delay in storm formation.
Despite the slow start, NOAA predicts a highly active hurricane season in 2024. They expect 17 to 25 named storms, significantly above the average of 14. Several factors contribute to this forecast:
- La Niña Conditions: These can reduce wind shear in the Atlantic, making it more conducive for storm formation.
- Above-Average Sea Surface Temperatures: Continued warming of the ocean fuels more and stronger storms.
- Enhanced West African Monsoon: This can increase the number of tropical waves moving into the Atlantic.
It's important to note that a late start does not equate to a quiet season. History has shown that it only takes one storm to make a memorable season. For instance, Hurricane Andrew, the first named storm of the 1992 season, didn't form until late August but went on to become one of the most destructive hurricanes in American history.
As we brace for the 2024 hurricane season, it's crucial to stay informed and prepared. First Coast News will keep you updated with the latest information on any tropical systems as they develop. Remember, it only takes one storm to have a significant impact, so preparedness is key. To track tropical weather visit Hurricane Central Here.
