JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — As the calendar turned to December, the Jacksonville Jaguars were sitting pretty. Fresh off their win against division rival Houston, the Jags held a comfortable two-game lead in the AFC South with just six games to go. Even as recently as Sunday, fans were looking up at the AFC standings – dreaming up the then very realistic path to a possible #1 overall seed and 1st round bye in the playoffs.
But now with a three-game losing streak, is it possible the Jaguars could miss the playoffs altogether?
Let’s look at the AFC Playoff Picture
What are the chances the Jaguars still win their division?
Thanks to their head-to-head wins over the Colts and their superior division record (4-1) compared to the Texans (2-2) the Jaguars hold critical tiebreakers over both of their closest division foes. So to win the division, the Jaguars need to simply stay tied with (or ahead of) both teams
Can they do it?
Let’s first look at the Jaguars’ remaining schedule:
12/24: @ Tampa (7-7)
12/31: vs Carolina (2-12)
1/7: @ Tennessee (5-9)
At first glance, it seems more likely than not that the Jaguars could run the table and win all three of those games. Not a single opponent has a winning record.
But all three of those teams have something the Jaguars do not: A win in December.
In fact, Tampa Bay comes into Sunday’s matchup on a three-game winning streak. With Trevor Lawrence entering the NFL’s concussion protocol, the Jags will have their work cut out for them. We know the Jags will automatically make the playoffs by winning-out… but what happens if they stumble Sunday in Tampa?
Let’s take a look at the remaining schedule for the Texans and Colts:
12/24: Colts @ Falcons (6-8), Texans vs Browns (9-5)
12/31: Colts vs Raiders (6-8), Texans vs Titans (5-9)
1/7: Texans @ Colts
The first thing that stands out: The Colts and Texans game against each other the last day of the season. It might seem like that’s a good thing, as one of those teams is guaranteed to lose (outside the unlikely event of a tie). But remember – the Jaguars have to finish even or ahead of both teams to win the division, and one of them is effectively guaranteed a win in that game.
In the other two games – the Colts face two teams who have losing but respectable records. It seems unlikely the Falcons will put up much of a fight after losing to the previously 1-win Panthers last weekend, but Atlanta is still just a game out of 1st place in the NFC South and will have plenty to play for in front of their home crowd. The Raiders have shown no signs of quitting on the season either, dropping 63-points in their most recent win over the Chargers. The reality though is that it’s entirely possible the Colts could win both of these games.
As for the Texans, the Browns (9-5) are right in the thick of the AFC playoff hunt and the Titans are perhaps better than their 5-9 record would indicate, with 6 of their 9 losses coming by a touchdown or less. But considering both the Browns and Titans are working with backup and/or rookie quarterbacks, the Texans have more than a puncher’s chance of winning both these games as well.
If the Colts and Texans both win their next two games, and the Jags stumble against either Tampa or Carolina, the Jags would actually be eliminated from the divisional race before the clock strikes midnight on New Year’s Eve.
What are the chances the Jaguars can grab a Wild Card spot?
It’s nice to have backup options.
With 12 teams still technically alive for the final 6 playoff spots in the AFC, it’s a little too soon to discuss all the tiebreaker scenarios here… but it seems more likely than not that even if the Jaguars lose one of their last three games, they would still grab a wild card spot. In fact, a playoff odds generator from the New York Times shows the Jaguars will still have an 88% chance of making the playoffs if they finish the season winning just two out of three.
Of the teams currently in the 4th (Jacksonville) through 9th (Buffalo) spots in the AFC playoff pictures, we know for a guaranteed fact that a lot of these contenders will also lose more games. That’s because many of them play each other.
Houston and Indianapolis play each other.
The Browns play both Houston and Cincinnati.
There’s even a chance a team like Miami, the current #2 seed in the AFC, could fall below the Jags after their gauntlet schedule against the Cowboys (10-4), Ravens (11-3), and Bills (8-6).
But the Jaguars can take all the math out of the equation if they go out there and win.
If you’re feeling extra confident, playoff tickets are already on sale for a potential home playoff game the 2nd weekend in January.
Greg Leuthen is Executive Producer of Good Morning Jacksonville