JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — There has been a buzz on social media for the past week about a potential tropical storm or hurricane developing in the Gulf of Mexico this week. It might seem a bit odd considering it's only springtime, but storms have developed across the Atlantic basin in the month of April before.
First Coast News Meteorologists Lauren Rautenkranz and Robert Speta looked into the claims across the internet and explained why this is very unlikely.
THE QUESTION
Is there going to be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico this week?
THE SOURCES
- Chief Meteorologist Tim Deegan
- Meteorologist Lauren Rautenkranz
- Meteorologist Robert Speta
- National Hurricane Center
- GFS / EURO Computer Models
- Historical Data
- Current Forecast
THE ANSWER
There is an area of low pressure developing in the Gulf of Mexico this week and it's expected to bring heavy rainfall across the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Florida. However, it is not being born from tropical conditions and thus will not be named a tropical storm and for sure not a hurricane.
WHAT WE FOUND
First of all, the sea surface temperatures where the low pressure is churning aren't ideal for tropical development and for a tropical system to sustain itself or strengthen. Systems as such need water temperatures in the lower 80s for ideal tropical development. However, the northern Gulf waters are currently in the middle and upper 70s.
On top of that, this low pressure is developing from a frontal system and has a bit of what meteorologists call a "baroclinic flow" around it. This means it's powered more by the transport of warm and cold air and less by the latent heat release we see with a tropical system. So, because of this current system's origins being cold core versus warm core it simply cannot be defined as a tropical cyclone.
To add, a branch of the jet stream is also moving over this Gulf low pressure area. For mid-latitude storms, this helps support them but is not conducive for tropical cyclone development as it provides an abundance of wind shear. The wind shear will not allow the displaced upper level and surface lows to vertically stack.
There is plenty of scientific, and meteorological evidence that this system is not tropical in nature.
Looking back at historical data, there has also never been a tropical cyclone recorded in the Gulf of Mexico during the month of April. The last April storm recorded across the Atlantic basin was Tropical Storm Arlene in 2017, but it stayed out at sea, also known as a "fish storm," in the north-central Atlantic Ocean.
Interestingly the April Hurricane in 2017 was named Arlene, the First Hurricane of 2023 will also have the same name as they repeat every six years.
With that all being said, there is indeed an area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico that will bring rainfall across the Gulf Coast, including Florida's East Coast this week. However, based on all of the available data, it's not tropical and therefore will not be named a tropical system and certainly not a hurricane.
The rain for the area is not a bad thing with drought conditions, or at least abnormally dry conditions, in place for most of Florida.
