JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — Florida is back in the national political spotlight as the latest state to let voters decide on abortion rights and recreational marijuana. This comes in the middle of primary season ahead of the 2024 Presidential Election, a race where Florida was not considered to be competitive.
First Coast News Political Analyst John Daigle said this could shake things up for both the Republican and Democratic parties.
"Florida was not expected to be a battleground state. With these two amendments on the ballot, it may become a battleground state. There was not a lot of discussion about the Republicans having to fight or spend significant resources to win Florida. That dynamic has changed now," Daigle explained.
Daigle believes this will have a big impact on voter turnout and possibly get people out to the polls who were otherwise planning to stay home in November.
According to a November 2023 poll by the University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab, 62 percent of respondents said they would vote yes for the abortion rights amendment, and 67 percent said they would vote yes to legalize recreational marijuana. Fifty-three percent of Republican respondents said they would vote yes for the abortion rights amendment.
Andrew Pantazi, editor for The Tributary, said the passage of both amendments might not impact the outcome of the 2024 Presidential Election.
"What we've seen across the country with each of these referenda, specifically on abortion, but also on cannabis, is that they're broadly popular across parties. They've passed in a lot of Republican red states. And so it's possible that we see both of these initiatives getting more than 60 percent of the vote, and still Florida votes for former President Trump in November," Pantazi explained.
Still, analysts believe it will come down to how much money the Democratic and Republican parties want to spend in the state to try and sway voters.
"It's a lot of very expensive markets. And that makes it so that the Democrats who are deciding where to invest resources are trying to say, do we put it there? Do we put it in Georgia? Do we put it in Arizona? Do we put it in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan? And it's harder and harder as time goes on where Democrats lose here to make the case that the national party should be funding more operations in Florida as opposed to elsewhere," Pantazi said.
Since Roe v. Wade was overturned in 2022, seven states have passed ballot measures siding with abortion protections. The amendments in Florida would need a supermajority of 60 percent to pass.