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'Desperate situation': Scientists, while realistic about survival chances, offer hope

One scientist described trying to find an object the size of the Titan on the ocean floor as a needle in a haystack situation, unless you’ve got a precise location.

Scientists, while remaining realistic about the chances of finding the Titan on the vast ocean floor, were still offering a glimmer of hope Thursday before the Coast Guard announced debris from a missing submersible was found near the Titanic. 

Rob Larter, a marine geophysicist with the British Antarctic Survey, said in London on Thursday that it’s incredibly difficult to find an object the size of the Titan in a totally dark environment. He says it’s not going to be found with active sonar from a surface ship, but rather with a towed or autonomous vehicle that’s near the seafloor. Even those vehicles can see just a matter of meters.

“I’ve been involved in searches for hydrothermal vent sites,” he said. “We’ve have the vehicles just a few tens of meters away and missed them and then come back and find them. So it really is, you know, literally it’s just a needle in a haystack situation unless you’ve got a pretty precise location”

Jamie Pringle, an expert in forensic geosciences at Keele University in the United Kingdom says the first 24 hours are critical in these kinds of rescue operations and that time period has long passed.

“So there’s always a chance. It’s never zero. But I think obviously the longer the time elapses, the lower the chance of success,” he said.

Larter called it a “desperate situation” but says you try to stay optimistic as long as possible.

“It’s kind of unimaginable if people are alive, trapped in a submersible with oxygen supplies running down,” he said.

The search for the missing submersible on an expedition to view the wreckage of the Titanic passed the critical 96-hour mark Thursday when breathable air could have run out, a grim moment in the intense search effort. Later Thursday, officials said they believe the vessel suffered a "catastrophic implosion" and all five on board were dead.  

Where did the sub go missing?

The craft submerged Sunday morning, and its support vessel lost contact with it about an hour and 45 minutes later, according to the Coast Guard.

The vessel was reported overdue about 435 miles south of St. John’s, Newfoundland, according to Canada’s Joint Rescue Coordination Centre in Halifax, Nova Scotia.

The Titan was launched from an icebreaker that was hired by OceanGate and formerly operated by the Canadian Coast Guard. The ship has ferried dozens of people and the submersible craft to the North Atlantic wreck site, where the Titan has made multiple dives.

Credit: TEGNA
A map showing the approximate location of the Titanic shipwreck and where a submersible tour departed before disappearing.

Where did the Titanic Sink? How deep is the Titanic wreck?

Most of the Titanic wreck is approximately 350 nautical miles off the coast of Newfoundland, Canada, according to NOAA. It remains about 12,000 feet below sea level on the ocean floor. 

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