JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — As all eyes remain on the outcome of the presidential election, Duval County Republicans can celebrate a slew of local wins despite the county's selection of former Vice President Biden at the top of the ticket.
Biden took Duval County with a 51% share of the electorate, with President Donald Trump bringing in 47%.
But down ballot, Republicans cleaned up nearly every race:
- Republican Jody Phillips defeated Democrat Jimmy Midyette in the Duval County Clerk of Courts race, the only countywide race on the ballot, 51% to nearly 49%
- Republican John Rutherford defeated Democrat Donna Deegan in the Congressional District 4 race, 57% to 42%
- Republican Cord Byrd defeated Democrat Joshua Hicks in the State House District 11 race, 62% to nearly 38%
- Republican Clay Yarborough defeated Democrat Emmanuel Blimie in the State House District 12 race, 60% to nearly 40%
- Republican Wyman Duggan defeated Democrat Tammyette Thomas in the State House District 15 race, nearly 54% to 46%
- Republican Jason Fischer defeated Democrat Ben Marcus in the State House District 16 race, nearly 58% to 42%
- Republican Kevin Carrico defeated Democrat Nicole Hamm in the Jacksonville City Council District 4 race, 53% to nearly 47%
The sole exception is Congressional District 5, where incumbent Democrat Al Lawson defeated Republican challenger Gary Adler with an impressive margin, 67 percent to 33 percent.
Before the election, Democrat Angie Nixon defeated incumbent Democrat Kimberly Daniels for the State House District 14 race. Nixon was not challenged on the ballot, and Democrat incumbent Representative Tracie Davis also held onto her State House District 13 seat without a general election challenge.
So if local races skewed red, how did Duval County go blue?
"As we've seen over the last couple of years, there are more and more people being registered as Democrats in Duval," said Mike Binder, associate professor of political science at the University of North Florida and director of the university's Public Opinion Research Lab (PORL).
Despite the clerk of courts race being countywide, Midyette was not able to pick up a majority of votes. Binder said it could be both a disconnect between the top of the ticket and down ballot or Republicans who were disenchanted enough with Trump to vote Biden but voted red in other races.
"There wasn't as much volume around down-ballot races this time, for any of them, because of the noise from Coronavirus and the presidential race. So not as much attention got paid to them," he said.
Binder said, ultimately, the down-ballot races hinge on the layout of the district maps. For example, the Rutherford v. Deegan match-up was in a heavily Republican district.
"The way that district is drawn, that's a big Republican district. It was extraordinarily unlikely she was going to make enough gains no matter where she was to cut into that lead, no matter how big a 'blue wave' might have been," Binder said.
Meanwhile, Florida went red for Trump with a significant margin (around three percent) for a state that has often been considered a very tight battleground.
But followers of Florida politics are familiar with how deep red runs in Tallahassee, with a state legislature controlled by Republicans for years.
Binder said Democratic votes in Florida are clustered, not as widespread as Republican votes.
"You'll have house districts and state senate districts that are extraordinarily Democratic, and then districts that are fairly solid Republican or lean Republican," he said. "So [Republicans] are able to more efficiently distribute their vote and claim those seats."
With the 2020 Democratic performance in Jacksonville, Binder said Democrats still stand a chance in the city in the future, but it will come down to forming a coalition that can broadly appeal to the city's Black voters and white, more progressive constituents.
In 2019, the most recent mayoral campaign in Jacksonville, Democrats did not field a candidate against incumbent Mayor Lenny Curry.
"I think if you're a Democrat in this city and you're part of the organizational power structure of the party, and you don't field, maybe not more than one but even multiple quality mayoral candidates in 2023, it's absolute political malpractice," Binder said.
"I have no doubt the Republicans are quite content and they're happy to keep winning elections here."