JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — Early voting in Florida has been exceptional, some would say, in Duval County where the turn out has been more than 60% of registered voters.
Presidential elections usually excite voters, but this is different, according to the University of North Florida's Dr. Michael Binder.
"This is a referendum election on Trump," Binder said. "This is about how much you love Trump or hate Trump."
Binder, a pollster and political science professor at UNF, also spoke about the role of Duval County. He said while it is not a bellwether on how Florida will vote, it will have an impact as a swing county.
"Democrats are paying more attention," Binder said. "Kamala Harris was here the other day. Trump has been here. It is an area that is getting a lot more focused."
In the past, Democrats would look to South Florida voters for their victory and Republicans would look to North Florida counties.
President Donald Trump won Duval County in 2016, but Binder said the demographics have since changed.
He said while a number of Republicans have moved out to areas like St. Johns County, a number of younger voters who are progressive and tend to vote the Democratic ticket have moved into Duval County.
"We're a different city and we are changing and growing in a number of ways," he said.
He said to look to the Gubernatorial race in 2018. Andrew Gillum, a Democrat, got Duval County to look in his direction.
"Historically, Democrats have ignored Northeast Florida, but now they're paying more attention," he said.
In 2008, President Obama won the state but not Duval County.
Binder said it was that 2018 statewide election that caused the shift.
"I think that has put Jacksonville on the map as a swing county," he said
What does that mean?
"If these early returns come in and Trump is winning Duval, I don't think Biden stands a chance across the rest of the state," Binder said, "but if Biden is winning depending upon by how much. I think that will give us a peek as to how the rest of the state is doing."
In Duval County, 60% of registered voters have already voted. He said how Duval County goes will be measured by the Non-Party Affiliation (NPA) vote — he voter who is registered as an independent.
"In 2016 they went for Trump. Will they do that again in 2020? " Binder asked.
He said right now Democrats are leading in the early voting but after Tuesday that will be awash.
It is at that point, he said, we will see the impact of the NPA vote and that will tell us which way Duval County will swing in 2020. We'll also see how that will impact the fight for those 29 electoral votes.
The candidate needs 270 or more electoral votes to win the White House.