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Curve in Context: Increase in COVID-19 cases related to testing or a 'second-wave'?

2,783 new cases were reported across the state Tuesday and if you align those with the number of tests run, you still have more than nine percent testing positive.

On Tuesday, the state of Florida ran more than 30,000 tests. 

Naturally, with all those tests you’re bound to find more cases of COVID-19 but setting a single-day record for the most cases is still troubling for many.

In total, 2,783 new cases were reported across the state Tuesday and if you align those with the number of tests run that day, you still have more than nine percent testing positive.

A number that's nearly four points higher than the overall percent (5.48%) since this all began.

With the Republican National Convention less than three months away in Jacksonville, there is a growing concern for what an influx of national visitors could mean for Duval County and the coronavirus. 

Just like Florida, Jacksonville also saw a serious spike in the number of new cases Tuesday with 80 new cases being reported. That’s the single biggest jump since we began tracking cases in early April.

During a news conference Tuesday, Jacksonville Mayor Curry said he's more concerned with percent positive when it comes to tracking trends but that number could look different depending on the chart you’re seeing. 

It’s true that the total percent has been dropped every month.  Total percent positive was well over 5 percent in April, now the total number is just under 3 today. But if we look at the day-to-day, the last 30 days shows those numbers beginning to climb.

 In that span, percent positive has been as low as -.69 percent (this comes after a day when the Florida Health Department actually reported fewer total cases than the day before) and as high as 5.73 percent. 

It’s hard to make a pattern with the numbers looking so erratic, but using a two-week moving average helps us connect the dots. 

The two weeks up to May 18 showed an average percent positive about 1.9 percent.  The two weeks leading up to June 17 had an average just over 3.

It’s hard to know now if this is a stretch of bad weeks or if this is a more telling reflection of what the reopening phase has done to Jacksonville, but we’ll continue to track the numbers daily and break down the curve in context.

 

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